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Kenya’s exports to the United States have hit a three-year high as traders rush to maximize opportunities under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which is set to expire at the end of September 2025. This surge reflects the country’s growing reliance on the trade pact that has long provided duty-free access to the lucrative US market.
Between January and August 2025, Kenya exported goods worth Sh50.87 billion to the US — the highest figure since 2022, when shipments totaled Sh52.25 billion over the same period. According to data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), this marks the third straight year of consistent growth in trade between the two nations.
Despite the positive performance, Kenya’s trade relations with the US have faced turbulence this year due to shifting global trade policies and heightened protectionism under President Donald Trump’s administration. Early in April, the US government introduced new tariffs, including a 10 per cent levy on Kenya’s exports, citing the need for more balanced trade relations. This development created uncertainty for exporters who rely heavily on the AGOA framework to maintain competitive pricing and stable access to American consumers.
AGOA, which was established in 2000, was designed to encourage economic growth and reduce aid dependency among African nations by granting them preferential access to the US market. For Kenya, it has been a vital lifeline, especially for industries such as textiles, apparel, and agriculture. More than half of Kenya’s exports to the US consist of clothing, macadamia nuts, coffee, titanium ores, and black tea. Of these, around three-quarters currently benefit from duty-free access under AGOA, highlighting the program’s importance to Kenya’s export economy.
The textile and apparel sector remains the biggest winner under AGOA, having earned Sh60.57 billion in 2024 from US exports — a remarkable 19.2 per cent increase from Sh50.82 billion the previous year. The industry supports thousands of jobs, particularly in export processing zones in Nairobi, Mombasa, and Athi River, and its success has been a symbol of how well-structured trade partnerships can spur industrial growth and employment.
However, the looming uncertainty over AGOA’s renewal poses serious risks. Analysts warn that if the trade deal is not extended, Kenya’s average tariff rate on exports to the US could nearly triple to 28 per cent. Such an increase would erode the country’s competitiveness, discourage investment, and potentially lead to massive job losses, especially in the labor-intensive textile sector.
Business leaders and trade experts are urging both governments to approach the transition carefully. The Kenya Private Sector Alliance and the American Chamber of Commerce in Kenya have called for a gradual adjustment period to protect existing investments and workers. They argue that an abrupt end to AGOA benefits could reverse the gains made over the past two decades and undermine Kenya’s efforts to position itself as a manufacturing and export hub in the region.
Since its inception, AGOA has transformed Kenya’s trade profile, turning the US into one of its key export destinations. As the September deadline approaches, the focus now shifts to diplomatic efforts aimed at securing an extension or negotiating a new trade framework that ensures continuity.
Whether through renewal or a new bilateral agreement, the outcome will significantly shape Kenya’s economic future. For now, exporters continue to work against the clock, determined to make the most of the remaining months of duty-free access while hoping that ongoing discussions yield a favorable solution for both sides.
